From COP30 to Santa Marta: Feasible Pathways for Fossil Fuel Phaseout

The Report

The COP30 negotiations in Belém exposed the entrenched interests and political economy constraints at the heart of fossil fuel phase out.

This report analyses the coalitions and motivations shaping international positions on transition and identifies the economic, social and legal questions required to develop credible pathways for managed fossil fuel decline. Looking ahead to the Santa Marta conference, it explores how coordination among early-moving states may help articulate differentiated phaseout pathways capable of shaping the next phase of climate leadership.

Authored by Professor Richard Beardsworth, Alice Garvey, Elliott Johnson, April 2026

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The Authors

Richard Beardsworth is a Professor of International Politics and Head of School of Politics and International Studies at the University of Leeds

Alice Garvey is a Research Fellow in Energy Demand at the University of Leeds

Elliott Johnson is a Research Assistant and postgraduate researcher in energy demand reduction at the University of Leeds

The authors thank the reviewers for their helpful comments. Any errors remain our own.

To cite this report, please reference: Richard Beardsworth, Alice Garvey and Elliott Johnson (2026): From COP30 to Santa Marta: Defining Feasible Pathways for Fossil Fuel Phaseout. University of Leeds. https://doi.org/10.48785/100/453