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What happens after the hurricane?

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As the impacts of climate change become more visible each year, the annual UN climate conferences (COPs) take on new political weightiness. 2024 is on track to the be the hottest year in the post-industrial period, slamming a record set only last year. This year’s COP, COP29, takes place against a turbulent backdrop of catastrophic weather events worldwide, from Hurricane Milton in the US to a historic drought in southern Africa.

Recognising these escalating impacts of climate change, ‘Loss and Damage’ (L&D) has emerged as a central focus of COP negotiations in the past 2 years – a policy area intended to address harms to people, property, places, and cultures inflicted by climate change. COP29 is poised to make significant decisions about Loss and Damage, including what L&D programming ‘looks like’ – in other words, how the UN intends to finance recovery from harmful weather events.

In my own research in Malawi, the complexity of such recovery was thrown into sharp relief. Affectionately known as the ‘Warm Heart of Africa’, Malawi is a small country in southern Africa which has been affected by repeated cyclones in the past five years and an acute drought this year. As shown by the World Weather Attribution group, these cyclones and droughts are caused and/or exacerbated by climate change.

In February 2023, Cyclone Freddy swept through southern Malawi, destroying lives, homes, and agricultural fields with floods, extreme winds, and mudslides. Recovery in the immediate aftermath was an immense challenge, particularly for people living in rural villages: people have fought cholera outbreaks whilst living in evacuation centres, searched for alternative income sources to rebuild homes, and grappled with how to grow food for their families in waterlogged fields.

Drought-affected fields in Thembedza, Malawi. Photograph by Catriona Flesher, University of Leeds
 

Yet, as people in southern Malawi work to restabilise their lives in the wake of Freddy, a severe drought developed in 2024 due to a particularly extreme El Niño weather event (which, once again, has been tied to climate change).  

In Thembedza, a rural village in southern Malawi, the drought is undermining the fragile process of recovery from Freddy. Agricultural fields in Thembedza are either still-waterlogged from Freddy or dried-up due to the drought, leaving people without the means for cultivating food and earning income. These extreme weather events have compounded one another – Cyclone Freddy worsened Thembedza’s vulnerability to the drought, and the drought has undermined recovery from Cyclone Freddy. 

For most people in Thembedza, this year has been characterised by hunger – hunger which stops children going to school, makes people sick, and strips away the means for a good life. Rather than ‘recovery’, the period since Freddy has been defined by a persistent sense of crisis.  

People farming on drought-affected fields in Thembedza, Malawi. Photograph by Catriona Flesher, University of Leeds
 

This November at COP29, negotiators should recognise that extreme weather events are not individual, siloed, time-limited events. In Malawi, recovery from Cyclone Freddy can only be addressed hand-in-hand with recovery from the drought. Recovery from extreme weather events is a complex, long-running process which becomes entangled with new hazards, vulnerabilities, and events unfolding in the same place.  

To more equitably and effectively address climate impacts, I would like to see COP29 listen to impacted communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis. Only by learning from people impacted by the climate crisis can COP29 understand the consequences of ‘one-off’ extreme weather events. 


Blog written by Catriona Flesher
Featured Image: “Flooding in Malawi” by United Nations Development Programme is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.