Putting Earth System Tipping Points on the COP30 Agenda
On the 13th of November we launched the second Global Tipping Points Report. One of the key messages of this report is that we are already passing the first Earth System Tipping Point, Coral Reef Dieoff, as we approach 1.5°C. Overshooting 1.5°C puts the world in a danger zone where further Earth System Tipping Points (such as AMOC collapse, see second Global Tipping Points Report Chapter 4.2) pose catastrophic risks. Along with the warning that we have now crossed 7 out of 9 planetary boundaries, with the latest in 2025 being ocean acidification, we have to acknowledge that we live now in a new reality! And this reality has its own systemic risks (i.e. cascading societal risks), such as negative social tipping points or derailment risks, a vicious cycle where the escalating climate change impacts undermine climate action, leading to further escalation of climate change.
This new reality needs to enter the international negotiation space at COP30. In the report (Section 1) we have developed several governance strategies at international, national and local level to respond to Earth System Tipping Points. This is because governing tipping points is not the same as governing climate change. Once certain thresholds are crossed, we commit the planet to irreversible, accelerating, and cascading changes — with consequences lasting for centuries.
That changes everything about how we must govern and is the foundation for our arguments about the governance agenda urgently needed today:
- Irreversibility: Once triggered, tipping points can’t simply be stopped, reversed or “fixed” – system reorganizations will run their course. Prevention becomes imperative — every tenth of a degree and every year counts.
- Acceleration: After a tipping point, change speeds up, challenging our ability to respond, adapt and keep up with the disruptions. We need proactive capacity-building and resilience before thresholds are crossed.
- Magnitude & Novelty: Impacts will be larger — and sometimes completely different — from what we expect today. Adaptation plans and risk assessments must be rethought.
- Redistribution: New vulnerabilities will emerge across the globe — even in regions once thought secure — reshaping global justice and responsibility. Vulnerability will also be redistributed across generations.
- Cascades: One tipping point can trigger others including at the societal level. Only coordinated, systemic governance can prevent cascading failures.
The implication is simple but profound: Tipping points collapse the illusion of gradual change — and demand governance that is faster, fairer, and fit for a world of irreversible risks.
However, such governance insights can only be taken into consideration if Earth System Tipping Points are put on the COP30 Agenda. We believe that civil society can play a crucial role in setting the agenda (see our research on the influence of climate movements on COPs). And we have gained crucial civil society allies for our cause, such as the WWF and the Global Citizen Assembly, which was revived as a permanent institution ahead of the COP30. But we need an even bigger mobilisation from civil society actors across the world to put sufficient pressure on COP30 negotiators to negotiate in full consideration of Earth System Tipping Points. But even beyond COP30, governments need to start to take Earth System Tipping Points into consideration in climate risk assessments and climate mitigation and adaptation policies.
And if you ask what your role could be, why not write to your MP and ask them to demand that the UK COP30 delegation team advocates for Earth System Tipping Points to be put on the agenda.
Embed video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BVjeWWRtOQ