UK environmental prediction: an integrated approach to understanding interactions across sky, sea and land at convective scale

Abstract

UK Environmental Prediction is a JWCRP NERC/Met Office collaboration aiming to develop the first  high resolution regional coupled model for the UK at kilometre scale. It is hypothesised that more  accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather  through the environment, requires a more integrated approach to forecasting. This approach also  delivers research benefits through providing tools with which to explore the known interactions and  feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across  sky, sea and land. This presentation will discuss the progress made during the initial Prototype phase  of work. I will introduce the new UKC2 environmental prediction system – incorporating models of the  atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean  waves (WaveWatch III). These components are coupled (via OASIS3-MCT libraries) at  unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK and the wider north-west European regional domain.  A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in  coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a unique new research tool for UK environmental science.  New research results will be shown, as motivation for a discussion on the opportunities for ongoing  research through Phase 2. This seeks to consolidate the progress delivered so far and further  develop national and international collaborations to exploit this new capability, to deliver new  research and pull-through to impact.

Biography
Huw Lewis leads the UK Environmental Prediction research collaboration, working across  atmosphere, land and ocean modelling and observation. He graduated with a PhD from ICAS and  Leeds in 2006, working on collecting and analysing observations of boundary layer flow over hills  from the Gaudergrat project in Switzerland. During the 11 years he has now been at the Met Office  he has undertaken a number of roles, working initially on rainfall radar and later satellite  observation research before working for the Chief Scientist. Huw has developed the UK  Environmental Prediction collaboration over the past 3 years, with Phase 2 now providing the ideal opportunity to build new research collaborations with colleagues in Leeds again!